NLL Crystal Ball: Week 5

I went an impressive 4-2 last week (better than all the IL Indoor experts). I'm now 8-7 on the season (tied with Pilson and ahead of all the other experts). The know-it-all in me wishes I'd gone 6-0, but the Rock fan is happy about the two wrong predictions. Anytime Rochester and Buffalo lose, and look awful doing so, is good. This past weekend of lacrosse was so exciting that I wrote this post on Sunday. I figured that was a bit early to post, but I'm home sick today, so it seems as good a time as any. I go out on some tenuous limbs with my picks this week, which can be mocked after the break.



This week's picks:
I reserve the right to modify some of these picks once we hear about injuries and suspensions. Actually, I won't be changing anything if Doyle is in the lineup for the Rock, but I may change the Buffalo-Washington game if players like Mike Thompson and Mark Steenhuis draw suspensions (a Brandon Francis suspension probably counterbalances the suspension of a good player).

1. Toronto steals one in Philadelphia
1. Two teams on 2-game winning streaks. The Wings are developing a pattern of giant killing, but the Rock are on a roll.
2. The Bandits rebound from a terrible week by destroying the Stealth in front of the sea of pumpkins
1. Two teams in slumps. I like Buffalo's chances of rebounding better than Washington's, which comes down to coaching. I'm assuming suspensions for the Goondits will be similar to those given to Philadelphia and Rochester earlier in the year (i.e. dead-ball-fighting game misconducts); if I'm wrong, then this pick might change.
3. Rochester takes advantage of home floor to hold on for a win against Minnesota
1. Two teams going opposite directions, but the Blue Cross is a hard place to play.
4. Edmonton will be the first team to steal one in Colorado
1. The Mammoth can't win forever ... and saying that every week is probably the surest way to guarantee that they keep winning until I pick them.

Favourites to Win the Cup:
The beauty of Favouritism is how much it will change from week to week, especially on weeks with some dramatic changes in the standings. While the standings are a little more straightforward this week - Washington is clearly the only team not in the playoffs - picking winners in many of the current if-the-playoffs-started-today matchups is a real brainteaser. Or rather, the East is difficult, since the most recent games suggest Philadelphia and Toronto would win their playoff matchups against Rochester and Buffalo respectively, even though the latter two teams beat the former teams earlier in the season. By way of contrast, the West is pretty simple. No one seems to be able to contain Colorado. (Each team's expected playoff route is indicated in brackets after their name.)

1. Colorado (would beat Minnesota, Calgary and Toronto)
1. While I want to believe that the reason for their success so far has been other teams failing to take them seriously, it's just not fair to the Mammoth. They're playing very well right now.
2. Toronto (would upset Buffalo and Philadelphia before losing to Colorado)
1. Last week they were out of the playoffs; this week they're hot. I said off the top of the season that the Rock could withstand injuries to two forwards and two defencemen. I stand by this, but I didn't imagine the forwards would be Manning and Doyle. They've still got four all star / all pro forwards and four quality depth guys. No other team in the league could withstand the loss of two all pro forwards.
3. Philadelphia (would beat Rochester and lose to Toronto)
1. Deciding that the Wings were slightly less hot than the Rock, right now, was the hardest decision of the week.
4. Calgary (would beat Edmonton and lose to Colorado)
1. The Roughnecks have lost a couple of OT games at home. If the ball bounces a bit differently, both of those are wins. They'll turn it around and make sure the next home game isn't as close.
5. Edmonton (would lose to Calgary)
1. While the showing against Washington was impressive, it seems like everyone is beating up on Washington.
6. Minnesota (would lose to Colorado)
1. A really solid showing against the Goondits. I'm not sure the Swarm can repeat it, but we'll see.
7. Buffalo (would lose to Toronto)
1. This kind of inconsistency is exactly what I expected from Buffalo. Although, to be fair, I thought it would be the result of injuries rather than them not showing up the night after a tough loss. I pity the team who plays them next week, because the Goondits will be out for blood ... if the score isn't going their way, expect more stupid thuggery.
8. Rochester (would lose to Philadelphia)
1. It's starting to look like week one was an anomaly for both Philadelphia and Rochester. Rochester has a ton of talent, but they're still figuring out how to pull it together for a full 60.
9. Washington (not in playoff picture)
1. Anyone know what's wrong in Washington? Lots of theories about the Ratcliff black hole, but I'm wondering if the absence of Coach Hall is the real problem here. The good news is that they can win a couple of games and get right back in the thick of things.

Magic Numbers
Colorado's fourth win and the third loss for Washington (and Rochester) means that Colorado clinches a playoff spot with 10 more wins, or 10 more Washington losses, or any combination of Mammoth wins and Stealth losses adding up to 10 (where head-to-head matchups count double).
Philadelphia is tops in the East, but their number, like Buffalo's and Toronto's, is only down to 12. That Toronto and Buffalo have both beat Rochester means they are each one win away from clinching the season series (aka first tiebreaker) versus Rochester - holding a tiebreaker over another team lowers the magic number by an additional game.

Bonus thoughts: if Pat Campbell had waited a second longer before stepping in to protect his teammates from Geoff Snider, he still gets ejected, but he might also have taken Snider with him. Snider already had his gloves off and was *this close* to punching the first second Rock player he could grab in the back of the head, which would have made him the instigator and Campbell the third man in. Campbell did Snider a huge favour by flying into the melee.
Also, as horrendous as the officiating was that game (which is to say, it was pretty much the normal level of awful we've come to expect from NLL refs), they did a decent job of preventing any further stupidity. I suspect some of that was how close the game was, and how careful the players were being as a result.