NLL Crystal Ball: Week 4

Time to check the crystal ball again. I went 2-2 last week, which is respectable, and I'm at 4-5 on the season. I've decided on a methodology for the weekly favouritism, which I think should give it some credibility and fun. Check out my picks and other prognostications / pontifications after the break.


This week's picks:

1. Toronto over Rochester
1.  There's a lot of teams playing double-headers. They'll probably all split their weekends, but I decided to go against my better intuitions and have Toronto sweep this must-win weekend and let Buffalo and Rochester split theirs.
2. Philadelphia over Buffalo
1. After two weeks I think Philly might be working on an identity for themselves - giant killers. They rise to the occasion against the good teams and forget to show up against the others.
3. Buffalo over Minnesota
1. No way Buffalo loses two on the weekend, in fact, I probably should have them down to win two. If they do, maybe John Tavares can give me an internet shush.
4. Rochester over Colorado
1. Colorado has to lose a game or two this season, and I think Rochester will be the first team to do it after their warmup against Toronto on Friday.
5. Toronto over Calgary
1. I said at the beginning of the year that Toronto and Calgary would split the season series. I guess I should've looked at the schedule more closely. I'll stick with my initial pick, but I have my reservations.
6. Edmonton over Washington
1. Two teams in need of their first win of the season. I had to pick one of them, so I went with Edmonton.

Favourites to win the Cup:
I hinted off the top that I've come up with a methodology. Up to this point I'd be going with my pre-season favourites, this season's sparse results, plus gut instincts. Now I've decided to go with an evidence-based methodology. You're allowed to disagree, with everything except who I've seeded ninth ...
For the rest of the season I'm going to look at the standings, crank numbers through the calculator to figure out who would be in the playoffs if they started on the coming weekend. I'll take into consideration playoff seedings, previous records and decide who would have the best chance of winning the cup and then rank them 1-8 plus the also-ran losers.

1. Colorado
1. Top seed in the West would have homefield throughout the playoffs. They're firing on all cylinders right now.
2. Buffalo
1. Top seed in the East, and would face a hot Colorado in the finals.
3. Calgary
1. Second seed in the West, already proved they can't handle Colorado.
4. Rochester
1. Second seed in the East, and they've already lost once to Buffalo.
5. Philadelphia
1. Third seed in the East, and they've already lost to / got slaughtered by the second seed.
6. Edmonton
1. Third seed in the West based on losing by only a goal to the top overall seed.
7. Washington
1. Fourth seed in the West based on goals-for-against; they'll get hotter as the season proceeds, but I don't think they could beat a hot Colorado in a playoff game right now.
8. Minnesota
1. Fourth seed in the East based on goals-for-against - it's possible that Washington and Minnesota should be switched (East-West), but it doesn't really matter; neither stands a chance against either Colorado or Buffalo.
9. Toronto
1. Out of the playoffs. When there's four teams without a win, one of them has to miss, and the Rock have the worst goals-for-against differential.

Magic Numbers to Clinch Playoff Spots:
With Colorado's hot start and Washington and Toronto's real stinkers I cranked the numbers to see how close Colorado is to clinching a playoff spot. Every team started the season with a magic number of 17 (the combination of their wins and another team's loses). Colorado has lowered their magic number to 12, and they could lower it to 9 after this weekend. Remember, to guarantee a playoff spot a team simply has to be better than at least one other team in the league thanks to the crossover.
Buffalo, the top team in the East, has lowered their magic number to 13, and if they win twice and Toronto loses twice this weekend, then Buffalo's magic number would also be 9.