I'm getting very excited for the start of the 2012 National Lacrosse League season. I just listened to the podcast of the first episode of Toronto Rock Total Access; I watched some of the guys on CP24 this morning, and last night I read Andrew McKay's piece on Matt Roik. I'm unbelievably excited, even more so because my oldest nephew is coming down for his first game on Sunday.
Since I nailed my playoff predictions last year (stupid Boston), I figure I might as well gaze into the crystal ball again before the season starts. This isn't rocket science, because only one team in the entire league will miss the playoffs. In fact, teams could start clinching playoff spots as early as the All Star Break at the end of February. What amuses me the most about the number of teams making the playoffs is that two (or more) teams could go winless this season, and one of them would still get into the playoffs using the goals for / against tiebreaker. Check out my predictions after the break.
East
Buffalo - their fate depends on two things: the health of their goaltenders, and the health of John Tavares. They'll be top two in the East, probably second at the end of the season, but select injuries could devastate their season.
Philadelphia - they are going to be better than last year; they have to be, since there is one less team in the East. They benefited tremendously from all the offseason drafts, and what is looking like a steal of a trade for Brodie Merrill. They should be firmly in third this season in the East. They could push the top two, but they could just as easily be in a fight for the basement.
Rochester - they have the potential to surprise everyone, but I think they're a year or two away from being contenders. I think they'll finish fourth in the East, and they'll probably do enough to earn a playoff spot. Best case scenario is bumping Philly for third.
Toronto - the depth at every position but tender is impressive. They can probably withstand the loss of two forwards and two defenders to injuries. No other team in the league is this stacked, but nearly every team is more confident in their tenders. If Matt Roik is above average or phenomenal, then the Rock coast to first in the East. If Roik falters, then the Rock could be looking at second or worse. I see Roik doing the job most nights and the Rock edging past Buffalo for first in the East.
West
Calgary - they're even better than they were a year ago when they finished first overall in the regular season. They'll repeat that performance by taking the West this season, the only question is whether Dave Pym can lead them on a playoff run.
Colorado - they're better, but I don't think they improved as much as Edmonton, with whom they were in a dogfight for the final playoff spot last season. I think they've got the tools to squeak into the final playoff spot in the West.
Edmonton - they're better than they were a year ago. They've got draft picks to burn over the next few seasons. If their tenders falter, they could drop to fifth, but I believe they'll wrap up third in the West this season.
Minnesota - they are young, like Rochester, but I don't think there's as much talent here. The biggest difference between the Swarm and the Knighthawks is in net. Vinc and Cosmo are comparable, but Cosmo is holding out. They'll finish fifth in the West, and I don't think they've got enough to push Rochester out of the final East spot either.
Washington - they're about the same as last year, and I expect about the same in the regular season. They'll coast through the regular season to a second place finish and then pour it on when it matters in the playoffs. This is a team that is built to win and knows how, so all they have to do is get to the playoffs.
Early bird playoff predictions:
I think we're looking at rematches from last year's division finals. Toronto and Buffalo will face off in the East (beating Rochester and Philadelphia, respectively), while Calgary and Washington will meet in the West (after handling Colorado and Edmonton, respectively). The semifinals should all be academic. Close, but academic. The conference finals, on the other hand, are going to be intense see-saw battles.
It's early, but I'm going with a Toronto-Calgary championship matchup to bookend the season. The two teams will meet this Sunday in the opening game of the season, and I see that game as a bit of a litmus test for the championship. If Roik plays well and the Rock win the first game of the season, then Calgary will probably make adjustments and take the regular-season rematch in Calgary. By the time of the finals Cordingley will have made even more adjustments and the Rock should win.
However, if Calgary steals the season opener with an outstanding performance by Poulin, then the Roughnecks could easily ride him in the championship for their third title.
Since that's a lot of bet-hedging for this year's NLL Champion's Cup Champions, I'm going to say that the Rock win it and the season opener. I think Roik will be keen to make a good impression this Sunday night, and I can see the Rock O clicking on all eight cylinders coming out of the gate. Look for Carey and Shooter Sanderson to have big nights in the opener, but Leblanc and Doyle to come up huge in the championship.
So what do you think? Will the Rock repeat? Is Rochester going to ride Vinc and their youth on a surprising ride? Can Minnesota do enough to shift the shame of missing the playoffs onto some other team? Will Cosmo or Iannucci play this season?
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