NLL Crystal Ball: Week 3

Maybe I should stay out of the business of making guesses on a game-by-game basis this National Lacrosse League season. I went 2-2 last week, so I'm 2-3 on the season. There are four games this week, and I'm not feeling very productive this afternoon, so I figured I'd get my picks done before I get swamped with other things later in the week. I was going to just throw my picks down, but Graeme insisted I provide insight and analysis. Check it out after the break.


I have a lot of experience picking NFL games against the spread, and I've learned that any randomization pattern, like a coin toss, is statistically more effective than any system anyone could devise by following the games, injuries, weather conditions, etc. Lannis is always quick to remind me of her highly effective Smarties Strategy anytime I discuss prognostications. Parity in the NLL means that coin tosses and Smarties Strategies are probably going to be as effective as watching games and studying score sheets. Perhaps next season I could invite Lannis to apply her Smarties Strategy weekly, and I could toss a coin for the Gnome (the inanimate character from the wall mural in our undergraduate residence common room), and then I could throw in my own "informed" picks. An interesting idea, but she's a high-priced blogger, so I'm not sure that a Smarties endorsement deal would be enough to secure her participation ;)

Now on with my picks:

1. I think Edmonton squeaks out their home and season opener against Colorado.
1. The Mammoth were impressive last week, but I still think that the Rush with our without Iannucci should be a better team (certainly they'll be better than the Swarm).
2. Washington will notch their first win against the Wings.
1. Philadelphia should be better than they were against Rochester last week, but the Stealth should still demolish them.
3. Buffalo holds on for a nail-biter over Rochester.
1. Rochester was impressive last week - I totally want to revise my preseason picks as a result - but I think the Bandits are a better team and should hold off the Knighthawks' firepower with their stingy defence and goaltending.
4. I'm going to adhere to the "teams perform better in the second half of a back-to-back weekend" adage and pick Colorado to upset Calgary.
1. The Roughnecks are the team to beat early this year, but I think the Mammoth will play well enough to win (baring significant injuries against the Rush on Friday) to be the first team to upset Calgary.

 Favourites to win the Cup:
There still haven't been enough games to really gauge everyone, especially Edmonton. However, I want to break my Favourites down into categories. There's the two contenders at the top, followed by four threats, then there's two pretenders, and bringing up the rear is the unrankable. But this week raises a philosophical question - is a team who trounces a terrible team better than a team who loses a close game to an awesome team? It makes no difference to the top 2 in this week's Favouritism, but it makes a huge difference to the middle four.

1. Calgary
1. They're tops in the West and so far have shown they're capable of beating everyone.
2. Buffalo
1. They're tops in the East, because I value the win over a tough opponent higher than a blowout of a terrible team.
3. Washington
1. While it may seem stupid to put a team with a loss ahead of teams with wins, I think losing to a good team shows more than beating bad teams. Plus, when push comes to shove, I think Washington could beat Colorado in a winner-take-all scenario for the right to play Calgary in the Western finals.
4. Toronto
1. They're behind Washington, because they've lost to two good teams. A solid performance, or win, by Rochester, and Toronto dips to the third-ranked Eastern team without a second thought.
5. Rochester
1. This week's games will go a long way to proving whether Philadelphia is a bad team, or whether Rochester deserves more credit for blowing them out.
6. Colorado
1. We know Minnesota is not going to be a good team this year. How will Colorado compete with the bigger fish?
7. Minnesota
1. We knew they'd be bad, but I'm surprised they couldn't compete with Colorado.
8. Philadelphia
1.  The only reason they aren't 9th is because Edmonton hasn't played ... if I'd seen an Edmonton practice I'd probably count that as sufficient data to rank the Wings lower.
9. Edmonton
1. No data, cannot rank.