NLL Crystal Ball: Week 6

I went 2-2 last week, which is a bit of a middling pattern I've developed this season. This puts me at 10-9 overall this season; that's one back of Pilson and one up on Jenner and Shanny (and better than all the other IL Indoor experts).

If you aren't on Twitter, you should be, because the Toronto Rock are taking over Twitter, and they are doing it well. Pat Merrill started #dguyproblems up again today, and Josh Sanderson responded with an #oguyproblems. We were also the first to hear Rob Marshall reporting that he was on his way to the hospital for Xrays on his broken foot. I'm glad someone told him that he didn't have to follow us all back, but he might want to reconsider self-reporting injuries. Just saying.

Anyway, in looking at the schedule and records I noticed that it's entirely conceivable that by the end of this weekend we could see six of nine teams sitting with two wins each, and as few as two teams above .500. Hello parity!

This Week's Picks

1. Edmonton steals one in Minnesota
1. Edmonton edges this one out in a battle of teams coming off tough losses on the road.
2. Calgary wins a close one in Washington
1. If the win over Buffalo has cured Washington, then I don't much like Calgary's chances. However, I don't think Washington was cured as much as I think Buffalo was flawed, so Calgary rebounds from their two game skid and week off with a W.
3. Rochester loses in Minnesota
1. Minnesota has the advantage of playing on Friday night, and they'll be keen to defend their home floor after losing in Rochester last week.
4. Buffalo keeps on losing in Philadelphia
1. On paper, Buffalo is the better team. However, Philly started the Goondits current funk, and assuming that Dan Dawson scoring a goal wasn't some kind of curse that will prevent the Wings from scoring for an entire half again this week, then Philly will win.

Favourites to Win the Cup
The newest addition to the format is last week's rankings in (italics) after this week's ranking.

1. (1) Colorado (would beat Minnesota, Calgary, Toronto)
1. The Mammoth just keep on winning. Can't even argue with all their All Star starter selections.
2. (2) Toronto (would beat Rochester and Philadelphia before losing to Colorado)
1.  If the Rock have more games like they did in Philadelphia, they'll run away with the East. The only weakness to last week's game was the fourth when they hung Roik out to dry and he said "don't worry guys, I got this."
3. (4) Calgary (would beat Edmonton and lose to Colorado)
1. Since the Roughnecks had the week off, this is an indication of the competitiveness of Philadelphia more than Calgary's strengths. I think Calgary will give Colorado a better game in the hypothetical West finals than Philadelphia will give Toronto in the hypothetical East finals.
4. (3) Philadelphia (would beat Buffalo and lose to Toronto)
1. Even though I think Buffalo would perform better in a playoff game than some relatively meaningless midseason game, I'm still giving the edge to the Wings in this hypothetical matchup that just happens to be playing out this week.
5. (5) Edmonton (would lose to Calgary)
1. The Rush are playing about as well as I expected, and they're no match for Calgary in a hypothetical first round of the playoffs.
6. (8) Rochester (would lose to Toronto)
1. The Knighthawks finally figured out how to close out a game ... against Minnesota. The way things are going right now they could get shutout by Toronto for three full quarters if they met in the playoffs this weekend.
7. (6) Minnesota (would lose to Colorado)
1.  They are exactly what we all expected. The Swarm's only saving grace is how terrible Washington is so far this season.
8. (7) Buffalo (would lose to Philadelphia)
1. Given how pissed off Buffalo fans are with many Goondits players (take a look at the Wingszone Forums) it's slightly surprising they voted for so many hometown boys to start the All Star Game ... or maybe the league stepped in to make sure the pumpkins were happy, since their fickle hatred of Mikey Thompson, Steenhuis, Francis can't possibly last (it's not like we expect them to suddenly see what the rest of us have seen for years).
9. (9) Washington (not in playoff picture)
1. The Stealth are a couple of wins away from getting back in the race, which has to be comforting for a team that is built to win big games and has been so awful so far this season.

Magic Numbers
Colorado can clinch a playoff spot with 9 wins or 9 Washington losses or some combination. They also hold the first tiebreaker over Edmonton, which has lowered that number to 9 as well. In the East, Toronto is down to 11.

Other Numbers
Offence is definitely up this season. Minnesota has the most potent offence (and the most porous defence); they're on pace to score 250 goals this season (and to let in that many as well). Edmonton has the stingiest defence, in fact they're the only team averaging less than 11 goals against per game (they're actually under 10, which was last year's benchmark for greatness). Colorado has the second most potent offence and the second best defence, and therefore the best per game differential (they're winning by an average of 3 goals per game). Washington's offence is the most anemic, scoring less than 9 goals per game. Once Washington starts clicking on O, and Edmonton normalizes a bit on D, every team's average for goals for and goals against will be over 11. Definitely higher than the numbers at the end of last season.