NLL Crystal Ball: Week 7

I went an impressive 3-1 last week. Let's take a moment to bask in that glory, because it's all downhill from here. I'm at 13-10 on the season, which is one up on Jenner and Pilson, the two best experts over at IL Indoor. I hope no one at IL Indoor gets the idea of copying me, especially Stewart and Shanny who would most certainly drag me down with their terrible luck. My picks, favourites and magic numbers after the break.

This Week's Picks
Okay, so originally I made my picks on Sunday evening (before certain players had even gone to certain restaurants). I like to make my predictions when the excitement of the games is fresh, and before I get bogged down in work for the week; I can just press the "publish post" button later in the week so my post appears in a timely fashion. Well, since making my picks, the shit has hit the fan. Trades. Suspensions. Does anyone care about my ability to beat the experts at guessing the winners to meaningless midseason games? Seriously, I wish someone would think about me in all of this.

1. Philadelphia puts up a better fight in the rematch, but still loses in Toronto
1. I think the Wings might score at least one goal in all four quarters this week, but I think the Rock score at least two. It will be closer this time, but Toronto is in a groove, and Philadelphia has only beat the league's two weakest teams: Buffalo and Washington.
2. Washington wins in Rochester
1.  The Stealth have put together a few decent outings and they are deadly to East coast teams in overtime. For every win the Kinghthawks pull out, they follow it up with two or three losses. This week's trade and suspension drama seems to make my original selection of Washington even more plausible.
3. Colorado keeps on winning in Minnesota
1. I joked in Week 5 that the Mammoth would keep winning until I picked them ... well, I'm picking them, so anyone who wants the lock of the week should pick the Swarm.
4. Edmonton loses yet another close, low-scoring game in Calgary
1.  This is a tough pick. The Roughnecks have been good enough to win most nights this season, but they are not as dominant as they were last season. The Rush are an enigma; their D is still head and shoulders above the rest of the league, but they can't score enough to win. I didn't think, at the beginning of the season, that Calgary would be near .500 and Edmonton would be so far below. The acquisition of Rabil, whether he plays or not, does not give Edmonton enough firepower to win in Calgary's barn.

Favourites to Win the Cup
I'm noticing four tiers of teams now that we're roughly a third of the way into the season. Colorado is in a league of their own. Toronto and Calgary can win most nights, but don't always pull it off; they seem to be the only teams that might present a fight for Colorado. Philadelphia and Minnesota are winning more than they lose, but aren't much of a match for any of the elite three teams. Meanwhile, Edmonton, Rochester, Buffalo and Washington can't seem to get anything going.

1. (1) Colorado (would beat Edmonton, Calgary and Toronto)
1. The team to beat. The hypothetical matchups with Calgary and Toronto should be beauty games.
2. (2) Toronto (would beat Rochester and Philadelphia before losing to Colorado)
1. Team to beat in the East. They've got no real competition in the East right now, and the matchup with Colorado in the hypothetical finals could be as exciting as the last two Champion's Cup games between Toronto and Washington.
3. (3) Calgary (would beat Minnesota before losing to Colorado)
1. They're not coming across as the dominant team that they should be. Perhaps they're working out the kinks for the playoff run that finally earns Pym some respect.
4. (4) Philadelphia (would beat Buffalo before losing to Toronto)
1. They've shown they can beat the down-and-out teams; they can even pull one out that almost gets away from them. Any team with DDD is a threat in a winner-take-all playoff scenario.
5. (7) Minnesota (would lose to Calgary)
1. If Colorado is the biggest overachieving surprise of the season, then Minnesota is next. The Swarm are a couple more wins away from unseating Calgary, and more importantly, from avoiding the basement.
6. (5) Edmonton (would lose to Colorado)
1. I'm expecting the Rush to go on a mini-run any time now. They've got the tools to succeed. I'm also bumping them up one spot in my favouritism based on this week's trades and suspensions.
7. (6) Rochester (would lose to Toronto)
1. One step forward, two or three steps back. Over the next couple of seasons, when they figure things out, this team will be scary good for at least five years. Errm, let's hope this weekend's extracurriculars don't have a long-term impact on the Knighthawks or the NLL, because the potential juggernaut in Rochester would be exciting to see (playing against other teams).
8. (8) Buffalo (would lose to Philadelphia)
1. Bandits fans want to blow up the team and start over again. I can't say I blame them. They're in the playoff picture because Mikey Thompson stole a couple of games to start the season.
9. (9) Washington (not in playoff picture)
1. The Stealth are, miraculously, a win away from getting into the playoff picture, and only a couple from serious contention. Athan Iannucci gives them more firepower, but there's the obvious offensive balance / passing problem in Washington until Zywicki gets back.

Magic Numbers
With the week off, Colorado still managed to lower their magic number to 8. The Mammoth could lower it to 6 over the coming weekend, and they could have it as low as 4 going into the All Star Game. Toronto also lowered their number on the off-week from 11 to 10, and could be down to 8 after this weekend.