NLL Crystal Ball: Week 8

I went 2-2 last week. When I saw that Graeme had the same picks, I tweeted that we were going .500 on the weekend ... if only I was as prescient at figuring out which 2 games I had wrong! Anyway, I'm up to 15-12 on the season. Thankfully Pilson and Jenner had the same picks, so I'm still up on the entire IL Indoor panel. This week's picks, favouritisms, magic numbers and other numbers after the break.

Before I get to the serious stuff, I just wanted to post a quick note about #Legend29. I finally have some clue what it's like to play lacrosse since I was denied by Mike Poulin in the trivia contest on Wednesday. On the upside, he retweeted my joke about him having to miss his game on Friday night so he could go to the retirement party. Dave Pym was not impressed.
Awesomely, I managed to score a win on Thursday, and it goes without saying that my prize (an autographed ball and all star card) will be going to some combination of my nephews and random kids I come across in the concourse at the first game after the package arrives in the mail. As much as my competitive drive pushes me to win (trivia contests, predicting NLL winners each week, etc.), and as much as I love prizes, I'm of the opinion that autographed memorabilia, or even just foul balls, give a lot more joy to kids than adults. Pay it forward people!

This Week's Picks

1. Toronto beats Rochester again
1. The Rock are perfect when Petkoff plays, and winless when he doesn't. If they want to win, obviously he needs to play (and with Flip out, Petkoff is probably in). The Knighthawks rallied in the face of adversity last week, but who knows what this week holds with all the players unsuspended? This is the pick I'm the most confident of my accuracy, which means it's the one I'll get wrong ... or something.
2. Philadelphia loses in Edmonton
1. This goes against all my instincts. The Wings are playing well and the Rush are not; I should pick Philadelphia, but I have a hunch that Edmonton is due for a win. Edmonton is the last team to play an out-of-division game, so maybe that's the magic ingredient for their second win on the season.
3. Colorado wins another close one over Calgary
1. The Mammoth can't win forever, and the Roughnecks have a better shot than most teams at upsetting Colorado. This isn't the week, or maybe it is. I can't figure Colorado or Calgary out, so I'm just going to keep picking them until they lose a couple of games in a row.
4. Minnesota wins and continues Washington's struggles
1. Another scary pick. The Swarm are playing better than the Stealth these days, but that can't last, can it? I hope my confidence in these picks is oozing through the computer screen. For a small fee I'll predict lottery numbers for you!
5. Bonus Game: West at East in the All Star Game
1. I really think the _est is built with a healthy balance of offence and defence ... who am I kidding? My prediction for the ASG is that no one cares. I actually remember a distinct change in the atmosphere pre and post ASG in Toronto in 2006. These gong shows turn the audience into a passive 'entertain me now while I sit on my hands' experience, and if you hand the reins over to Kloepfer shortly afterwards, then it will turn into a multi-year disappointment. Is it wrong that I secretly hope that Kloepfer is worming his way into the Bandits organization?

Favourites to Win the Cup

1. (1) Colorado (would beat Edmonton, Calgary and Philadelphia)
1. They are still the class of the league.
2. (3) Calgary (would beat Minnesota, but lose to Colorado)
1. Seem to be the only team with any hope of upsetting Colorado.
3. (4) Philadelphia (would beat Buffalo and Toronto, before losing to Colorado)
1. The best of the hot/cold/cold/hot teams.
4. (2) Toronto (would beat Rochester, but lose to Philadelphia)
1. Not even remotely looking like defending champs, although they've gone through stretches of suck the past two seasons before pulling things together in the playoffs.
5. (5) Minnesota (would lose to Calgary)
1. They're competitive most nights, which apparently isn't enough to keep a head coaching job.
6. (7) Rochester (would lose to Toronto)
1. Their wins this season tend to be unexpected, as do their loses.
7. (6) Edmonton (would lose to Colorado)
1. Maybe the problem is that everyone thinks Edmonton is so far North? <Checks map> Holy crap! It IS far North. Why would anyone want to visit, let alone live, there?
8. (8) Buffalo (would lose to Philadelphia)
1. They've still got a couple of weeks to overthink the question: can Cosmo turn this season around for the Goondits?
9. (9) Washington (not in playoff picture)
1. Being this bad is a recipe for disaster when it comes to building or maintaining a fan base. We all thought the offseason moves were trivial tweaks of a championship calibre team ... it looks like we were wrong. Hall is back this week, so maybe they'll turn things around.

Magic Numbers
Colorado's magic number is down to six. Something disastrous would have to happen for them to miss the playoffs at this point. Philadelphia, by virtue of holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Washington has lowered their magic number to seven; they also hold the first tiebreaker over Buffalo and have lowered their magic number against East opponents to eight.

Other Numbers
32. I have no clue what goes on behind the scenes with the Toronto Rock, but I can make some guesses.
Former management didn't seem inclined to retire numbers, otherwise 32 would've been hanging up in 2009. Instead he was co-coaching, prior to being relieved of coaching duties and kept on in an advisory capacity. Mostly this meant he sat a few rows in front of me with the whole Veltman clan any time Daryl was in town to play against the Rock. I assumed he was off somewhere else like a press box or the tunnels when the Rock were playing teams that didn't have his nephew on the roster, but now I'm not so sure. In 2010 he was back with the clan to see Daryl, and in 2011 he appeared on the Jumbotron from a box with the family. I've always assumed that he was around the rest of the time, but now I'm skeptical for two reasons.

First, Whipper has been in the same seat all three games this season. Again, it's a few rows down from me, but he's way closer to centre than the Veltman clan was. Second, when the Veltman clan wasn't in their row in 2009-2010 it was often other former players and coaches like Glenn Clark, Terry Bullen and Dan Ladouceur. Since the second year of Dawick's ownership that row of seats has been devoid of former players. This year it makes sense, since most of those guys are off doing Clax things (after the fan fest at the home opener I passed Ladouceur and Toll heading away from the arena - the latter tweeted a day or two ago, after the first draft of this blog post was written, asking about #32, which has created a bit of a Twitterstorm, and by storm I mean a retweet by Paul Stewart).

It's pretty clear that Whipper is a central part of the Rock's attempt to stay connected to the past in terms of their advertising, and that Watson is close to Dawick personally. It's a shame that Scoop isn't part of maintaining the Rock legacy. He is the closest thing lacrosse has to Le Gros Bill; he's the most successful captain in the National Lacrosse League, and generally seems to be a classy guy. If there was some kind of falling out between Veltman and former ownership, then I hope Dawick is reaching out to mend those fences. If it's simply a case of Veltman being too busy with a "competing" league, then I guess only time will tell.

None of this changes the fact that 32 should be hanging from the rafters at the ACC.
Scoooooooooooooooooooooooooop!