NLL Crystal Ball: Week 9

I went 3-1 last week; I'm up to 18-13 on the season. I'm having unbelievable luck predicting winners of games, but that doesn't mean I know anything about what's happening on the floor. Earlier this week I posted about trying to learn more about what is happening on (and off) the floor, which I followed with my first attempt at colour commentary.  Paul Stewart devoted two separate posts of his mailbag to answering my queries (which is extra awesome because I was only expecting one). First, he explained why no insider is likely to post colour commentary for the benefit of fans. Second, Stewart explained the statistical and strategic differences between basketball fouls and lacrosse penalties. I can't thank him enough for taking the time to explain some of those Xs and Os that have perplexed me. When I have time and space in front (of a keyboard), I'll probably brainstorm five million more questions. He'll soon be sick of me!

After the break, check out my picks, favourites, magic numbers and other thoughts.

This Week's Picks

1. Rochester loses in Philadelphia
1. I think the Wings will be looking for revenge for that devastation from their opening game of the season against the Knighthawks.
2. Toronto wins the first rematch of the 2011 championship game
1. The Rock played well last week, and the Stealth haven't got in gear. I have no strong gut feeling that this is the game that things click for Washington, but then I always feel good about a Toronto win.
3. Colorado wins in Buffalo
1. This is the toughest pick of the week. I think the Mammoth will be fresher, although the Bandits will be raring to go and keen to learn lessons from Calgary's drubbing of Colorado last week. My gut says Colorado, and my gut and I have a great relationship - I feed it, and it tells me who will win meaningless mid-season lacrosse games.
4. Minnesota loses in Calgary
1. Calgary hasn't been great at home, but they were outstanding last week against the league's best team. If that was the Roughnecks hitting their stride and they keep it up for the rest of the season, we might as well award them the Champion's Cup right now.

 Favourites to Win the Cup
Each week I run through a hypothetical playoff bracket based on current standings and then rank the teams based on the likelihood they'll win the Champion's Cup. After the last week these rankings will be my playoff predictions.

1. (1) Colorado (would beat Edmonton, Calgary and Toronto)
1. The Mammoth are mortal afterall, but they're still the team to beat.
2. (2) Calgary (would beat Minnesota and lose to Colorado)
1. The Roughnecks made a statement that they are the number one contenders for the title, and they are a week or two away from assuming/resuming their spot at the top of the pile.
3. (4) Toronto (would beat Buffalo and Philadelphia before losing to Colorado)
1. Regained their position as the best of the hot/cold/cold/hot teams. Who knows who will hold this position next week with all the middling parity in the league?
4. (3) Philadelphia (would beat Rochester and lose to Toronto)
1. The Wings have proved that they are dangerous any given night; the problem is consistency.
5. (5) Minnesota (would lose to Calgary)
1. Another one of those rare hypothetical playoff matchups that mirrors the current week's game; the Swarm have been impressive so far, but in both hypothetical and real worlds, there's no way they could beat Calgary this week.
6. (7) Edmonton (would lose to Colorado)
1. I had a hunch they'd beat Philadelphia, and they've probably got enough in the tank to switch spots with Minnesota by the end of the season, but only time will tell if the Rush can realize their potential.
7. (6) Rochester (would lose to Philadelphia)
1. Two hypothetical playoff previews happening in the same week is unbelievably rare.
8. (8) Buffalo (would lose to Toronto)
1. I don't even remember the last time they played, but it is some kind of miracle that Washington didn't leapfrog the Bandits in the standings over the past few weeks.
9. (9) Washington (not in playoff picture)
1. We're all waiting for the Stealth to turn it on. The longer we wait, the less likely it seems.

Magic Numbers
Colorado and Calgary are both down to five. Meaning, five wins or five Washington losses or some combination, will allow the Mammoth and/or Roughnecks to clinch their playoff tickets. Both front-runners could lower their magic numbers to three this coming weekend. Toronto, Philadelphia, Minnesota and even Rochester are all down to seven. We're two weeks (or more) away from the first teams clinching spots in the playoffs.

Other Numbers and Thoughts
All 4,000 people who were in their seats when the #Legend29 jersey raising started noticed that Roik wasn't announced and didn't come out until closer to the anthems. I heard murmurs of concern and conspiracy. I figure there was a pretty short turnaround between warmups and the pregame ceremony and he might've had some ummmm business to take care of. I wonder what it's like having 4,000 people notice that you're visiting the loo?

Speaking of #Legend29, here's a picture of my prize for answering a trivia question. The ball is going to my nephew so that they each have one. The card is up for grabs. Probably to the first kid I see (plus I can give them detailed directions on where to find Whip for an autograph).

One final note - I'll check in next week with my pre-season predictions once most teams have played half of their seasons; right now, all that hedging I did is saving my sorry ass from complete embarrassment. I'm still hiding my head in shame, but it could've been worse.