NLL Crystal Ball: Week 13

I went 3-3 last week, so I'm at 27-23 on the season. I made a few prognostications last week for which I would like partial credit. First, I was convinced that Philadelphia and Colorado would split the series. I guessed, poorly, that the home teams would win. I could've been 5-1. I was also hesitant about picking the Stealth the way I did, but it worked out, so we'll call that one a wash with the Wings-Mammoth. Second, I wrote this about the Roughnecks-Goondits game: "Two teams that are perfectly matched for extracurricular nonsense, but Calgary has more talent." Ding ding. Ring the bell, the Goondits are back in town. I pity the team who plays them this week ... well any week really.

This Week's Picks

1. Calgary and Minnesota
1. Roughnecks. Maybe Calgary is due for another loss; the Swarm are certainly due for a win, but it's not happening in this game.
2. Colorado at Rochester
1. Mammoth. The real question is whether Grant goes off for a single-game points record in this game. How many does he need to break the season record? 29? That's probably out of reach ... I think.
3. Toronto at Buffalo
1. Rock. If the real version of either of these teams could show up for more than two games in a row, it would be a lot easier to pick winners.
4. Minnesota at Edmonton
1. Swarm. Jenner must've been looking at my picks when he ran the numbers and realized how much better I am than the Insiders ... largely because I remember what Tutka wrote a few years back about the benefits of playing the night before (wish I could find the link for the article, I think it was Tutka).
5. Washington at Calgary
1. Roughnecks. Even if the Stealth were playing the second half of double-header weekend, and Calgary hadn't played in a few weeks, I would still pick the Roughnecks.

Favourites to Win the Cup

1. (1) Colorado (would beat Washington, Calgary and Philadelphia)
1. If there were ties in lacrosse, then the Mammoth and Roughnecks would be tied. They are the class of the league.
2. (2) Calgary (would beat Minnesota and lose to Colorado)
1. The Roughnecks are exactly what I expected at the beginning of the season: ridiculously talented. If they'd closed out a couple of those close games earlier in the season, they'd be running away from everyone else right now.
3. (3) Philadelphia (would beat Buffalo and Toronto)
1. They're the strongest team in the East, but there is so little separation that they could still fall to fourth.
4. (4) Minnesota (would lose to Calgary)
1. The Swarm appear to be on a bit of downward trajectory, but none of the teams below them have shown that they deserve to bump Minnesota from the top four.
5. (8) Toronto (would beat Rochester and lose to Philadelphia)
1. Any other playoff matchup than Rochester, and the Rock would be done in the first round. They better keep praying for a game against the Knighthawks, who they seem to own.
6. (5) Rochester (would lose to Toronto)
1. The Knighthawks have got to be hoping they line up against Philadelphia or Buffalo, or a cross-over team from the West ... anyone but the Rock.
7. (6) Buffalo (would lose to Philadelphia)
1. The Bandits could be higher in the rankings, if they were matchup with the Rock, who seem to be the only team they can beat.
8. (7) Washington (would lose to Colorado)
1. I'm beginning to wonder how they made back-to-back championship games.
9. (9) Edmonton (not in playoff picture)
1. It's been a tough year for the Rush. They're better than their record, but until they start winning games, they're going to be on the outside looking in.

Magic Numbers
Colorado and Calgary have clinched spots. Philadelphia is down to one and can clinch this weekend. Rochester is at three. Minnesota and Toronto are at four. Buffalo and Edmonton are at five. Washington brings up the rear at six.