17 May 2012

NLL Crystal Ball: 2012 Champion's Cup

Ouch!
My playoff picks have been atrocious. I've only got one of the 6 games right. I should've quit when I was ahead, i.e. after the regular season. After the break I offer absolutely no insight into the National Lacrosse League Champion's Cup Championship game.

This is a curious matchup in that both teams have drastically overperformed compared to their regular season standings. If this was my recreational slopitch league, then there would be questions of sandbagging and/or bringing in ringers.

When you look a bit closer, the Rochester Knighthawks actually don't look much different than they have in the regular season. They score tonnes, get big leads, and then let off the gas. The main difference from the regular season is that the period where they lay off the gas is shorter, and it isn't costing them games. In other words, they've developed their killer instinct. If their regular season pattern holds going into the final game, then they are due for either a terrible effort from start to finish, or they'll cough this one up late in the most dramatic and spirit-crushing manner possible.

The Edmonton Rush, however, look like an entirely different team. Like the Calgary Roughnecks put on Edmonton Rush jerseys or something. It's weird. They've been scoring, a lot. They're scoring so much I'm almost tempted to run the numbers to see if they can surpass their regular season scoring in just three playoff games. The defence looks the same, perhaps even better, so I guess there's that in terms of knowing it's Edmonton and not a bunch of impostors. The only question is, can they play that well for a third straight game?

I'm tempted to not even make a pick and to just accept that I'm going to be wrong. Afterall, if no one watches the Championship game, does it really happen? I'm pegging the over/under on total attendance plus total CBS Sportsnet viewership at 15,000, which in the grand scheme of North American audiences is effectively nothing.

But, instead of copping out, I'll pick Edmonton. Not because I want to jinx them, but because they have been the far more impressive team so far these playoffs. They earned a shot at the title with two fantastic games, and if they play to the same level, then they will smoke Rochester (who have also earned their shot at the title).

Next year, I hope they implement Marty O'Neill's suggestion for playoff reformatting, and I hope they do something about protecting players from injuries.

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