Rock Midseason Update

Couple of notes about the Toronto Rock season.


First off, the game this coming Friday night is the annual charity game. A buck from every ticket sold goes to Sunnybrook. Get your tickets here.
They ran a charity auction for all the game-worn jerseys that ended yesterday at noon, and there will be more fundraising opportunities during the game (for equipment and such).

Second, after their last win I checked out the standings and thought to myself - "the Rock have to be pretty close to clinching a playoff spot."

They are, and can in fact clinch a playoff spot this weekend by beating Philadelphia on Friday night and having Calgary beat Philadelphia on Saturday. The Rock are currently 8 and 2; Philly is 4 and 5. If the Rock finish this weekend 9 and 2, and Philly ends the weekend 4 and 7 then the worst the Rock can finish is 9 and 7 and the best Philly can do is 9 and 7, but the Rock would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker in this worst/best scenario by virtue of winning the season series 2-1.

The Rock, in other words, hold their playoff destiny in their own hands. If the Rock win their next six games, they guarantee themselves first overall in the league. In fact, the Rock can lose one game (to either Washington or Edmonton) and still guarantee first overall in the league. Every other team in the league needs the Rock to lose a certain number of remaining games to steal first overall.

Here's the list of scenarios under which the Rock guarantee themselves a playoff game:

1. To finish ahead of Philadelphia
1. Beat Philadelphia twice.
2. Split the remaining games against Philadelphia and win a minimum of one other game (or have Philly lose one other game).
3. Lose the two remaining games to Philadelphia (hence giving up the head-to-head tiebreaker to them) and any combination of four Rock wins or Philly losses.
2. To finish ahead of Rochester (currently 5-4)
1. Any combination of four Rock wins or Rochester losses (because the Rock own the head-to-head tiebreaker).
3. To finish ahead of Buffalo (currently 4-3)
1. Win the remaining game as well as any combination of 3 Rock wins or Buffalo losses.
2. Lose the remaining game (and the head-to-head tiebreaker) and then any combination of 6 Rock wins and Buffalo losses.
1. This is one of the few scenarios where the Rock need to rely on other teams losing to guarantee a playoff spot. This makes the Buffalo game the only one on the schedule that is a must-win in order to control their own fate.
4. To finish ahead of Boston (currently 6-3)
1. This one is complicated, because the two teams split the season series, and the next tiebreaker is record against divisional opponents. The Rock are currently 6-2 (3 games remaining) within the East and Boston is 3-3 (5 games remaining).
1. For the Rock to continue holding the tiebreaker over Boston they have to sweep their remaining divisional games. To lock up a playoff spot over Boston the Rock would also have to win two other games.
2. The third tiebreaker is games against common opponents (played an equal number of times). This would be games against Philadelphia, Buffalo, Rochester and Washington. If the Rock go 2-1 in their remaining divisional games, then they have to beat Washington and have Washington beat Boston. The Rock would also need one other win on the year (or Boston loss).
3. The fourth tiebreaker is goal differential in head-to-head match-ups, which Boston holds because they won by two goals (9-7) and the Rock only won by one (15-14). Subsequent tiebreakers are irrelevant since this one is conclusive.
1. Without the tiebreaker the Rock need a combination of 6 victories or Boston losses.
2. In cases where the Rock hold the tiebreaker over Boston, then the Rock need a combination of 5 wins or Boston losses.

Other scenarios are constructed by combining these ones.

1. For the Rock to guarantee a home playoff game they have to finish ahead of at least three of their East rivals. Philly, Rochester and Buffalo are the most likely candidates.
1. The Rock would have to sweep their remaining games against Philly and Buffalo and win one other game (or have each opponent lose one other game).
2. For the Rock to guarantee first place in the East they have to finish ahead of all four divisional rivals.
1. Easiest way is to sweep remaining divisional games and win any two other games.
1. In fact, if the Rock roll to a 5-1 finish they not only guarantee home field throughout the East playoffs, but almost certainly guarantee first overall in the league ...
1. unless the one loss is to Calgary and Calgary finishes the season by winning their final 8 games. No other West team can finish with less than 4 losses.

As long as the Rock keep winning, then their playoff destiny is in their own hands, and the number of complicating scenarios will disappear. However, in the event of three- and four-way ties, you'll have to throw out everything I've said about tiebreakers and start from scratch. It is possible, for instance, for the Rock, Boston and Buffalo to finish in a three-way tie at 10-6 and for the Rock to finish behind both teams.

If someone has a spare hour to check my math on this, fire away! I don't have a spare 9 hours to run the probabilities for all the other teams in the league, nor does it really matter ... you can't stop the Rock!