Rock Clinch 2011 Playoff Berth

With the Calgary thumping of Philadelphia on Saturday night, the Rock are guaranteed a playoff spot. I know, I'm sounding like a broken record, since I wrote about it here and here.


Here's why. For the Rock to tie Philadelphia, they would both have to finish at 9&7, since the Rock already have 9 wins and Philly already has 7 losses. Philly would have to win the remaining game between the two teams, and every other game on the season. The Rock would have to lose every remaining game.

1. If the Rock are only tied with Philadelphia the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record and the Rock would finish the season series with 2 wins and 1 loss. Rock win!
2. If the Rock are tied with Philadelphia and Rochester, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head between all the teams. The Rock would be 5&1, Philly would be 3&3 and Rochester would be 1&5.
1. Toronto finishes first of the three, followed by Philadelphia and then Rochester.
3. If the Rock are tied with Philadelphia and Boston, then the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. The Rock would be 3&2, Philly would be 3&3 and Boston would be 2&3.
1. Toronto finishes ahead of Philadelphia who finish ahead of Boston.
4. If the Rock are tied with Philadelphia and Buffalo, then we go to head-to-head. Buffalo would be 4&2, Toronto would be 3&3 and Philadelphia 2&4.
1. Buffalo finishes first of the three, followed by Toronto and Philadelphia.
5. If the Rock are tied with Philadelphia, Rochester and Buffalo at 9&7, then we look to head-to-head records.
1. Toronto finishes first with a 6&3 record.
2. Philly, Rochester and Buffalo start the tiebreaker over with head-to-head, and all of them finish 3&3. It then goes to divisional records, which Buffalo wins if they sweep Boston. However, if Buffalo loses the next two against Boston, then Philadelphia and Buffalo would have identical 6&6 divisional records.
1. The next tiebreaker would be common opponents, and I'm way too lazy to figure that one out. Let's just pretend Buffalo sweeps Boston so we can say that Buffalo finishes second, Philly third and Rochester fourth.
6. If the Rock are tied with Philly, Rochester and Boston at 9&7, then
1. Toronto is first with a 6&3 head-to-head record.
2. Philly and Rochester would have identical head-to-head records in the next round of tiebreaking, but Philly would finish second by virtue of their superior divisional record.
3. Rochester would finish ahead of Boston by winning the season series.
7. If the Rock are tied with Philadelphia, Buffalo and Boston, then
1. Buffalo or Boston finishes first, depending on the outcome of their remaining games against each other.
2. We then have to look at the three-way ties listed above including Toronto, Philadelphia and either Buffalo and Boston, so it's either
1. Buffalo, Toronto, Philadelphia or
2. Toronto, Philadelphia, Boston. (Sucks to be Boston, they could be first, or worst in this four-way tie scenario!)
8. If there is a five-way tie at 9&7 in the East, then
1. Toronto finishes first with a divisional record of 7&4, but the order of the other finishers depends on the remaining games between Buffalo and Boston.
2. If Buffalo wins the series 2-1, then they finish second, followed by Philly, Rochester and Boston.
3. If Boston wins the series 2-1, then Philly finishes second, followed by Rochester, Boston and Buffalo.

That's every single possible way the Rock can finish tied with Philadelphia at 9&7, and there is not a single scenario where Toronto does not finish ahead of Philly. Unless, of course, the National Lacrosse League has changed its tiebreakers ...

Second place in the East can be clinched with a win over Buffalo and two other wins on the season.
First in the East can be clinched with wins over the Goondits and Philly, and two other wins on the season.
First overall can be clinched with wins over Calgary, Philly and Buffalo, plus a win against either Edmonton or Washington. Winning against Washington would feel especially good!

So get on out to the Air Canada Centre on April 1st for the next home game against the Washington Stealth and make some noise for the boys!

Go Rock Go!!!