The Rock Can Clinch Home Playoff Game This Weekend

If the Rock win, and both Rochester and Boston lose a game this weekend, then the Rock are guaranteed of at least the second spot in the East and at least one home playoff game.



A win would vault Toronto to ten wins on the season, meaning they could do no worse than 10-6. Losses by both Rochester and Boston would give them 6 losses on the season, meaning they could do no better than 10-6.

Toronto has owned the head-to-head tiebreaker over Rochester since their second meeting of the season; the Rock's win in the third and final meeting gave the Rock a commanding advantage in all tiebreaking scenarios.

The Rock grabbed the tiebreaker over Boston after Boston's most recent loss to Buffalo on this past weekend. The teams will end the season tied 1-1 in the season series, but now Boston can finish no better than 6-5 in the division, and Toronto can finish no worse than 7-4. Divisional records are the second tiebreaker in all divisional ties.

In every three- or four-way tie involving Rochester and Boston at 10-6 overall, Toronto finishes first. This even includes tiebreaker scenarios that include Buffalo who would have to win the season series (for the Rock to end at 10-6) and own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rock.

The Rock's magic numbers on the season are:

1. Two relative to Rochester (two Rock wins, two Rochester losses, or one Rock win and one Rochester loss)
2. Two relative to Boston
3. Three, including a win against Buffalo, relative to Buffalo
1. Or five if they lose to Buffalo

Toronto is already guaranteed to finish ahead of Philadelphia, so a home playoff game comes with any two of the above scenarios. If all three are true, i.e. if the Rock win three games, including beating Buffalo, then the Rock are guaranteed first in the East, regardless of what the other teams do.

A win over Calgary and two other wins on the season, and the Rock finish ahead of Calgary. This could also be enough to finish ahead of Minnesota too, although it's not clear to me how the tiebreaker between Toronto and Minnesota would play out; let's say four wins on the season guarantees the Rock first overall, assuming the one loss is not to Calgary or Buffalo.