The Battle for First Overall in the National Lacrosse League

After a several week layoff, the Toronto Rock are back in action Friday night at 9:30pm real time (7:30pm Calgary time) against the Calgary Roughnecks. Those of you lucky enough to have TSN2 can catch the game live, the rest of us will have to watch on the NLL Network. The picture and feed quality on the NLL Network have been very good this season, so it's actually nothing to scoff at unless you have a restrictive usage meter or are using dial-up.


Since last week was a slow news week (even with the trade deadline), the NLL decided to take the opportunity to announce that the Rock and Roughnecks had both clinched playoff spots. The announcement was late in terms of when it actually happened, but good timing in terms of creating buzz in a slow week.

At 8-3, the Calgary Roughnecks are playing well, and the game against Toronto will decide the tiebreaker between the two teams, should there be a need to have one to decide who would host the Champion's Cup. A Toronto win and the Rock hold the tiebreaker. A Toronto loss by more than one goal, and the Roughnecks would probably hold the tiebreaker, but not necessarily. A one-goal Calgary victory and things get complicated in the event of a tie between the two teams. Needless to say, this is going to be a physical, close, exciting game.

Why? Let's look at some random numbers to figure it out. The last game, when both teams were tied for the league-lead at 4-2, went to overtime. The Rock grabbed control of the game with a dominating third quarter (a trend this year), then they nearly blew it, only to pluck the game out of mid-air - go to 2:51:50 of this video and watch until 2:53:00. The collective gasp in the arena when Shattler had the ball in front of the net with all the time in the world was audible; the sense of elation when Whipper made the stop was palpable. We went into a frenzy when Doyle stripped the ball and the rook buried it.

For the Rock, that game was the start of their current five-game winning streak. It was the last time the Roughnecks lost, and they've won four straight games since then. Should the Roughnecks protect their home turf on Friday night, the two teams will again be tied for first overall at 9-3.

Heading into the game, the two teams have the highest winning percentages in the league at .818 and .727. In terms of goal differential per game played the Rock are first overall, the Roughnecks third. The Rock allow the fewest goals per game, and have the third most potent offence. The Roughnecks have the second most potent offence and the sixth stingiest defence. Based on strength of opponents, measured by those same unreliable goals for and against per game, I think the Rock look stronger on paper, but this multi-week layoff and then a less than ideal travel schedule for a Friday night game, as well as home arena advantage have to give the Roughnecks a bit of an edge heading into the game.

Calgary finishes out the season with home-and-home games against Minnesota and then Colorado.

The next home game for the Rock is at 7:30pm on April 1st, no I'm not fooling, against the defending champions, the Washington Stealth. There's a deal on tickets available here - it's for super duper spies only, like Maxwell Smart. After that the Rock travel to Philly on April 2nd, host Buffalo on April 8th and close-out the season in Edmonton on April 16th. The playoffs start on the weekend of April 29th and run to the weekend of May 13th.

For those interested, here's the rest of the numbers on offensive and defensive potency this season so far, and how I think this translates to scariness of each team, should the Rock face them in a one-game playoff.

1. Toronto Rock:
1. 2.82 goal differential per game played
2. 12.00 goals for per game (3rd in league)
3. 9.18 goals against per game (1st in league)
2. Buffalo Goondits
1. 1.70
2. 11.00 (5)
3. 9.30 (3)
3. Calgary Roughnecks
1. 1.55
2. 12.73 (2)
3. 11.18 (6)
4. Boston Blazers
1. 1.36
2. 10.64 (T6)
3. 9.27 (2)
5. Washington Stealth
1. 1.00
2. 13.27 (1)
3. 12.27 (9)
6. Minnesota Swarm
1. 0.44
2. 11.33 (4)
3. 10.89 (5)
7. Rochester Knighthawks
1. -1.40
2. 9.30 (8)
3. 10.70 (4)
8. Philadelphia Wings
1. -2.36
2. 9.00 (9)
3. 11.36 (7)
9. Edmonton Rush
1. -2.73
2. 10.64 (T6)
3. 13.36 (10)
10. Colorado Mammoth
1. -2.78
2. 8.89 (10)
3. 11.67 (8)

Interestingly, these numbers more or less coincide with how the league stacks up in terms of power rankings.

1. Toronto is the team to beat.
2. Buffalo and Calgary are the legitimate contenders; you know it's going to be a close and hard-fought game whenever Toronto plays Calgary or Buffalo. Expect overtime or a one-goal thriller.
3. Washington and Boston scare me. Washington can score goals by the bucket-full, but they can't get the D to hold anyone, including some terrible Western Division offences. Boston has a decent D, and if that O ever figures itself out, it's curtains. These could be close games, or they could be disastrous blow-outs.
4. Minnesota and Rochester are the also-rans. They could go-off in a one game playoff, they probably won't.
5. Philadelphia, Edmonton and Colorado stink. They might surprise someone, but they shouldn't.