NLL Changes Rules for 2012

The NLL announced five new rules, or new interpretations of the rules, or tweaks of the rules, or something. I predict they will have no impact on the game in 2012, and not because the referees won't enforce them.


The new rules are:

1. Goalie equipment must be 1 inch slimmer.
2. Max 3 goals during a major penalty.
3. You have to drop the ball immediately on a whistle (no more crying, arguing, throwing it into a corner, etc.).
4. Both players involved in a change have to have both feet in the substitution area.
5. Teams have 8 seconds to move the ball over half.

Why aren't these rules going to change very much? Because the ones that will increase offence (1 and 2) get negated by the predictably conservative gameplans resulting from 4 and 5.

Slimmer goalie equipment could, in theory, open up more space in the nets for shots to sneak through. 1 inch might lead each goalie to let in an extra 5 goals a year. The dispersal of Boston's players is going to have a bigger impact on overall offence than this.

Only three goals per major penalty? Really? This unfairly rewards the team that takes the penalty when you consider that it could be unlimited goals allowed. Whatever, now it's three instead of two. Teddy Jenner commented on Twitter that this is the most important change; I figure the increased offence from the smaller equipment and longer powerplays will get cancelled by the new transition rules.

I don't have the stats handy, but my gut instinct is that teams score 0 goals on a 5-min powerplay about 25% of the time, 1 goal about 50% of the time and 2 goals about 25% of the time. The only change will be in the last percentage. I'm going to guess that teams will score 2 goals 18% of the time and 3 goals 7%. This rewards teams with fantastic powerplays and punishes teams that take a lot of attempted murder penalties. Let's call this the anti-Goondits rule and figure that it costs Buffalo a game or two in 2012. I don't see anyone crying.

Surely the league already had delay of game rules that covered this? I guess this makes it more explicit that the theatrics of the Evanses, Steenhuis and Manning (when I'm not wearing my homer-tinted goggles) will not be tolerated. We all win. I assume this rule was brought in because of the Ross-Sorenson-Manning incident in the championship game when the refs blew random whistles for reasons that remain unclear.

The other two rules are generating the most buzz. The Twitterbate between Andrew McKay and Jake Elliott was both extensive and illuminating. McKay posted a controversial blog yesterday on the topic. I'm neither as smart nor as quick as they are. Here's what I think after some reflection - the bench change and the 8 second rule will negate the limited increases in offence afforded by the equipment and penalty rules.

Bear with me for a second. In my entirely unscientific opinion, teams get caught on the 10 second rule about once a game, at best. Pressing is a huge gamble (because professional players can break them so easily), and giving teams 8 seconds probably makes everyone a little more conservative (especially with the new bench change), rather than faster and riskier. For instance, no defender who wants to play again in a game is going to scoop a looseball in a corner against a double team with no support, he'll just kick it or stand on it and stall. That's the same as the 10 second count, and catching an unsupported defender in a corner is really the only time a spontaneous press has ever worked. Planned presses usually rely on a numerical advantage to double-team the guy with the ball and still have every other player on the other team covered. That doesn't change no matter how long the count is.

So let's compare "normal" play under the old system and the new. Before players took 10 seconds to get over half, and then the ball carrier took another 5 seconds to make the final change; in other words it took about 15 seconds to setup the offence. Under the new rule the ball carrier gets the ball over in 8, and takes 7 seconds to get both feet on the bench before his replacement steps out ... in other words 15 seconds to setup the O. The only difference might be that offball guys on offence could start heading for the bench a second or two earlier now than they did under the old rule, which will reduce offensive opportunities. Afterall, no one is going to want to get benched for coughing up a transition goal by being caught in no-man's land or attempting an ill-advised press.

The two rules that appear to be designed to improve transition chances (aka excitement, turnovers and offence) are probably going to have the opposite effect. So the small gains in offence that are afforded by the new equipment and penalty regulations probably wind up negated by the new transition rules. On the upside, theatrical delays of game should decrease and the Goondits might lose another game or two!